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17 April, 2012

PWC Credibility Questioned.

Few years ago I read a leaked PWC report whose findings had contributed to the closure of an institution by a regulator that had contracted PWC to carry out a forensic audit. The report was full of inconsistencies and lacked evidence to back the recommendations.By using the auditors recommendations the regulator was put in a difficult situation that has left it in a legal limbo to date.

Which brings me to the current CMC fiasco.Pwc has been taken to court after its audit report was accused of making 'findings based on unreliable and speculative information'.Mr Muthoka, a shareholder,is questioning the integrity of the audit firm.

A SouthAfrican auditor, who was hired by the Capital Market Authority (CMA) to look into the CMC debacle , has sharply criticised the forensic report that PWC published on the state of the motor dealer’s finances.He dismissed the report as inconclusive and that the firm submitted open-ended findings without sufficient evidence.Pwc has also come under criticism for making firm conclusions even where it had no evidence to support its findings.

There are claims in the media that Deloitte, who were CMC's auditors before quitting early last month , has been uncomfortable in the task of auditing the motor firm since rival PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) was called in to conduct a forensic audit into the company’s finances since 2006.Given that PwC were themselves  CMC auditors until the end of 2005,the restriction of forensic audit to the period after PwC’s exit is, as Deloitte's believes, selective and risky to its interests as a consulting firm.At the same time the issue of impartiality in the forensic audit also come into sharp focus when you consider the historical relationship.

A background check of PwC’s involvement in scandals reveals quite a few.In fact, Pwc has been the auditors of the most notorious financial scandals of the past 15 years ,with the most recent black eye coming from its involvement with MF Global in which the U.S. regulators subpoenaed Pwc for information on the segregation of assets belonging to clients trading on U.S. commodity exchanges .MF global is only the latest of PwC’s trail of ‘negligence’ and ‘bad behavior.’ According to Wikipedia, PwC was involved in improprieties with the companies AIG, Refco, General Re Corp, Berkshire Hathaway, Tyco, the Sityam fraud, Yukos prosecution scandal, the Global Trust Bank misconduct (leading to a one-year ban by India’s central bank from doing business in India), the Transneft Russia scandal and Britain’s Northern Rock case.

What I have learnt from Pwc is that they subscribe to 'he who pays the piper calls the tune'.It's difficult to get an objective finding from this firm.Which raises the question what is the use of this auditors if they only pass what those in office say or want.Can investors depend on this so called 'big firms' to offer objective reports whenever they are contracted to do a forensic audit.



 


08 March, 2012

Ready For Konza City?



Konza city is an ambitious plan by the Kenyan government to transform a grass land into one of the most successful IT hub in the world akin to silicon valley in California, USA.

Alot has been said about this masterpiece, but one thing still remains, is Kenya ready for Konza by the year 2032 or is this a futuristic city that will be brought to life by the next generation.

   

So far the government has popularised the city locally and internationally.According to a recent advert,the project has generated  immense interest from foreign firms and individuals who have reserved 60% of  the initial 500ha of phase I.

Now lets see, what can we learn from the Asian tigers who are currently leading in technology and BPOs or even from the silicon valley itself?Can Kenya really compete internationally or are we just dreaming.

In these countries there is more interaction between Universities and the industry, where intellectual property rights are respected and they easily make it to the commercial environment.

Silicon valley for instance grew after a Stanford university dean encouraged faculty and graduates to start their own companies, this therefore, created a convergence of innovations on one site of new technological knowledge; a large pool of skilled engineers and scientists from major universities in the area; generous funding from an assured market with the Defense Department; the development of an efficient network of venture capital firms; and, in the very early stage, the institutional leadership of the university.


In India a government initiative to transform  Bangalore into an  IT hub has bore fruits making India one of the leading outsourcing  destinations in the world,It now boast of several  techno-cities.The Following are some of the reasons quoted by one IT expert  why leading global corporates opt for Call Center Outsourcing to India. :-

Efficient work force - Numerous attributes of the Indian manpower like great spoken English, well educated, technically skilled and mass scale availability on much lower remuneration makes India a popular destination for call center outsourcing. Moreover, research reveals that this kind of quality human resources will never cease due to the growing importance of education and a huge population of career oriented youth. 
Expert Service Availability - Due to technically ready base India provides services that cater to various kinds of customer supports. Be it a Voice process, Chat/Email support or Help desk service, expertise is provided with no compromise on the quality. India excels in both inbound and outbound call center services. Guaranteed proficiency is provided with regards to workforce, technology and operations.
Comfortable Time Zone - The twelve hour time difference in the Indian time zone makes India the number one choice for call centre outsourcing. This enables round the clock customer support to clients across the globe. 
Business Friendly Policies - Analyzing the benefits of the call centre outsourcing process and other IT ventures, the Indian government has gone a step ahead and pushed policies benefiting such endeavors. Tax exemptions/ benefits and support in building of effective infrastructure and Technology parks have inspired business owners in launching their own ventures. Polices like free export of capital goods and tax exemption on IT services and ITES exports makes India a clear winner in the call center outsourcing market.
Custom Made Infrastructure - India also benefits from outsourcing of call center services due to the presence of the latest infrastructure required for the ideal operation of such support processes. Excellent technology is put to work to get high quality of services. Also the cheap availability of the communication services is a factor boosting the growth.
Cost Saving Services - India emerges as the only nation to provide cost effective solutions to international inventors for call center outsourcing services. The outlay incurred on the human resource, IT setup and other infrastructure is comparatively less than other Asian and European countries.
Being a Leader in this fortune venture, call center outsourcing to India is a natural choice for various Global organizations. Moreover examples of major call center outsourcing ventures in India has encouraged other competitors in the world market to follow suit.


Another country that is posed to overtake India in call centre Outsourcing business is Philippines.To be competitive,The Filipino government streamlined its bureaucracy for companies setting up call centers and changed its rules to allow individual buildings to be designated special economic zones. Such zones offer tax breaks, quick clearances for building permits, and an exemption from import duties on computers and telecom gear. And some 40,000 students have benefited from government-sponsored training to improve their English and communication skills.

All in all, for Kenya to be competitive we need strong universities to spur research & innovation .The role of higher education in stimulating growth is illustrated most clearly in the cases of Kenya and South Korea.The two countries  were at the same stage of economic development in 1960s, with an average annual per capita income of about $100.While South Korea has experienced steady economic growth and emerged as a key player in the world economy, Kenya has still to attain its Millennium Development Goals, let alone begin to compete globally.When you look at investment made in Human capital and science in the education system you start  to get a rough idea why.If you look around the world the great technology hubs are associated with great universities.India For Instance, produces 400,000 graduate engineer every year which makes it way ahead in Outsourcing business of  more sophisticated services.














14 October, 2011

Google Engineer View on Product Development.

By Steve Yegge 
I was at Amazon for about six and a half years, and now I've been at Google for that long. One thing that struck me immediately about the two companies -- an impression that has been reinforced almost daily -- is that Amazon does everything wrong, and Google does everything right. Sure, it's a sweeping generalization, but a surprisingly accurate one. It's pretty crazy. There are probably a hundred or even two hundred different ways you can compare the two companies, and Google is superior in all but three of them, if I recall correctly. I actually did a spreadsheet at one point but Legal wouldn't let me show it to anyone, even though recruiting loved it.
I mean, just to give you a very brief taste: Amazon's recruiting process is fundamentally flawed by having teams hire for themselves, so their hiring bar is incredibly inconsistent across teams, despite various efforts they've made to level it out. And their operations are a mess; they don't really have SREs and they make engineers pretty much do everything, which leaves almost no time for coding - though again this varies by group, so it's luck of the draw. They don't give a single shit about charity or helping the needy or community contributions or anything like that. Never comes up there, except maybe to laugh about it. Their facilities are dirt-smeared cube farms without a dime spent on decor or common meeting areas. Their pay and benefits suck, although much less so lately due to local competition from Google and Facebook. But they don't have any of our perks or extras -- they just try to match the offer-letter numbers, and that's the end of it. Their code base is a disaster, with no engineering standards whatsoever except what individual teams choose to put in place.

To be fair, they do have a nice versioned-library system that we really ought to emulate, and a nice publish-subscribe system that we also have no equivalent for. But for the most part they just have a bunch of crappy tools that read and write state machine information into relational databases. We wouldn't take most of it even if it were free.

I think the pubsub system and their library-shelf system were two out of the grand total of three things Amazon does better than google.

I guess you could make an argument that their bias for launching early and iterating like mad is also something they do well, but you can argue it either way. They prioritize launching early over everything else, including retention and engineering discipline and a bunch of other stuff that turns out to matter in the long run. So even though it's given them some competitive advantages in the marketplace, it's created enough other problems to make it something less than a slam-dunk.

But there's one thing they do really really well that pretty much makes up for ALL of their political, philosophical and technical screw-ups.

Jeff Bezos is an infamous micro-manager. He micro-manages every single pixel of Amazon's retail site. He hired Larry Tesler, Apple's Chief Scientist and probably the very most famous and respected human-computer interaction expert in the entire world, and then ignored every goddamn thing Larry said for three years until Larry finally -- wisely -- left the company. Larry would do these big usability studies and demonstrate beyond any shred of doubt that nobody can understand that frigging website, but Bezos just couldn't let go of those pixels, all those millions of semantics-packed pixels on the landing page. They were like millions of his own precious children. So they're all still there, and Larry is not.

Micro-managing isn't that third thing that Amazon does better than us, by the way. I mean, yeah, they micro-manage really well, but I wouldn't list it as a strength or anything. I'm just trying to set the context here, to help you understand what happened. We're talking about a guy who in all seriousness has said on many public occasions that people should be paying him to work at Amazon. He hands out little yellow stickies with his name on them, reminding people "who runs the company" when they disagree with him. The guy is a regular... well, Steve Jobs, I guess. Except without the fashion or design sense. Bezos is super smart; don't get me wrong. He just makes ordinary control freaks look like stoned hippies.

So one day Jeff Bezos issued a mandate. He's doing that all the time, of course, and people scramble like ants being pounded with a rubber mallet whenever it happens. But on one occasion -- back around 2002 I think, plus or minus a year -- he issued a mandate that was so out there, so huge and eye-bulgingly ponderous, that it made all of his other mandates look like unsolicited peer bonuses.

His Big Mandate went something along these lines:

1) All teams will henceforth expose their data and functionality through service interfaces.

2) Teams must communicate with each other through these interfaces.

3) There will be no other form of interprocess communication allowed: no direct linking, no direct reads of another team's data store, no shared-memory model, no back-doors whatsoever. The only communication allowed is via service interface calls over the network.

4) It doesn't matter what technology they use. HTTP, Corba, Pubsub, custom protocols -- doesn't matter. Bezos doesn't care.

5) All service interfaces, without exception, must be designed from the ground up to be externalizable. That is to say, the team must plan and design to be able to expose the interface to developers in the outside world. No exceptions.

6) Anyone who doesn't do this will be fired.

7) Thank you; have a nice day!

Ha, ha! You 150-odd ex-Amazon folks here will of course realize immediately that #7 was a little joke I threw in, because Bezos most definitely does not give a shit about your day.

#6, however, was quite real, so people went to work. Bezos assigned a couple of Chief Bulldogs to oversee the effort and ensure forward progress, headed up by Uber-Chief Bear Bulldog Rick Dalzell. Rick is an ex-Armgy Ranger, West Point Academy graduate, ex-boxer, ex-Chief Torturer slash CIO at Wal*Mart, and is a big genial scary man who used the word "hardened interface" a lot. Rick was a walking, talking hardened interface himself, so needless to say, everyone made LOTS of forward progress and made sure Rick knew about it.

Over the next couple of years, Amazon transformed internally into a service-oriented architecture. They learned a tremendous amount while effecting this transformation. There was lots of existing documentation and lore about SOAs, but at Amazon's vast scale it was about as useful as telling Indiana Jones to look both ways before crossing the street. Amazon's dev staff made a lot of discoveries along the way. A teeny tiny sampling of these discoveries included:

- pager escalation gets way harder, because a ticket might bounce through 20 service calls before the real owner is identified. If each bounce goes through a team with a 15-minute response time, it can be hours before the right team finally finds out, unless you build a lot of scaffolding and metrics and reporting.

- every single one of your peer teams suddenly becomes a potential DOS attacker. Nobody can make any real forward progress until very serious quotas and throttling are put in place in every single service.

- monitoring and QA are the same thing. You'd never think so until you try doing a big SOA. But when your service says "oh yes, I'm fine", it may well be the case that the only thing still functioning in the server is the little component that knows how to say "I'm fine, roger roger, over and out" in a cheery droid voice. In order to tell whether the service is actually responding, you have to make individual calls. The problem continues recursively until your monitoring is doing comprehensive semantics checking of your entire range of services and data, at which point it's indistinguishable from automated QA. So they're a continuum.

- if you have hundreds of services, and your code MUST communicate with other groups' code via these services, then you won't be able to find any of them without a service-discovery mechanism. And you can't have that without a service registration mechanism, which itself is another service. So Amazon has a universal service registry where you can find out reflectively (programmatically) about every service, what its APIs are, and also whether it is currently up, and where.

- debugging problems with someone else's code gets a LOT harder, and is basically impossible unless there is a universal standard way to run every service in a debuggable sandbox.

That's just a very small sample. There are dozens, maybe hundreds of individual learnings like these that Amazon had to discover organically. There were a lot of wacky ones around externalizing services, but not as many as you might think. Organizing into services taught teams not to trust each other in most of the same ways they're not supposed to trust external developers.

This effort was still underway when I left to join Google in mid-2005, but it was pretty far advanced. From the time Bezos issued his edict through the time I left, Amazon had transformed culturally into a company that thinks about everything in a services-first fashion. It is now fundamental to how they approach all designs, including internal designs for stuff that might never see the light of day externally.

At this point they don't even do it out of fear of being fired. I mean, they're still afraid of that; it's pretty much part of daily life there, working for the Dread Pirate Bezos and all. But they do services because they've come to understand that it's the Right Thing. There are without question pros and cons to the SOA approach, and some of the cons are pretty long. But overall it's the right thing because SOA-driven design enables Platforms.

That's what Bezos was up to with his edict, of course. He didn't (and doesn't) care even a tiny bit about the well-being of the teams, nor about what technologies they use, nor in fact any detail whatsoever about how they go about their business unless they happen to be screwing up. But Bezos realized long before the vast majority of Amazonians that Amazon needs to be a platform.

You wouldn't really think that an online bookstore needs to be an extensible, programmable platform. Would you?

Well, the first big thing Bezos realized is that the infrastructure they'd built for selling and shipping books and sundry could be transformed an excellent repurposable computing platform. So now they have the Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud, and the Amazon Elastic MapReduce, and the Amazon Relational Database Service, and a whole passel' o' other services browsable at aws.amazon.com. These services host the backends for some pretty successful companies, reddit being my personal favorite of the bunch.

The other big realization he had was that he can't always build the right thing. I think Larry Tesler might have struck some kind of chord in Bezos when he said his mom couldn't use the goddamn website. It's not even super clear whose mom he was talking about, and doesn't really matter, because nobody's mom can use the goddamn website. In fact I myself find the website disturbingly daunting, and I worked there for over half a decade. I've just learned to kinda defocus my eyes and concentrate on the million or so pixels near the center of the page above the fold.

I'm not really sure how Bezos came to this realization -- the insight that he can't build one product and have it be right for everyone. But it doesn't matter, because he gets it. There's actually a formal name for this phenomenon. It's called Accessibility, and it's the most important thing in the computing world.

The. Most. Important. Thing.

If you're sorta thinking, "huh? You mean like, blind and deaf people Accessibility?" then you're not alone, because I've come to understand that there are lots and LOTS of people just like you: people for whom this idea does not have the right Accessibility, so it hasn't been able to get through to you yet. It's not your fault for not understanding, any more than it would be your fault for being blind or deaf or motion-restricted or living with any other disability. When software -- or idea-ware for that matter -- fails to be accessible to anyone for any reason, it is the fault of the software or of the messaging of the idea. It is an Accessibility failure.

Like anything else big and important in life, Accessibility has an evil twin who, jilted by the unbalanced affection displayed by their parents in their youth, has grown into an equally powerful Arch-Nemesis (yes, there's more than one nemesis to accessibility) named Security. And boy howdy are the two ever at odds.

But I'll argue that Accessibility is actually more important than Security because dialing Accessibility to zero means you have no product at all, whereas dialing Security to zero can still get you a reasonably successful product such as the Playstation Network.

So yeah. In case you hadn't noticed, I could actually write a book on this topic. A fat one, filled with amusing anecdotes about ants and rubber mallets at companies I've worked at. But I will never get this little rant published, and you'll never get it read, unless I start to wrap up.

That one last thing that Google doesn't do well is Platforms. We don't understand platforms. We don't "get" platforms. Some of you do, but you are the minority. This has become painfully clear to me over the past six years. I was kind of hoping that competitive pressure from Microsoft and Amazon and more recently Facebook would make us wake up collectively and start doing universal services. Not in some sort of ad-hoc, half-assed way, but in more or less the same way Amazon did it: all at once, for real, no cheating, and treating it as our top priority from now on.

But no. No, it's like our tenth or eleventh priority. Or fifteenth, I don't know. It's pretty low. There are a few teams who treat the idea very seriously, but most teams either don't think about it all, ever, or only a small percentage of them think about it in a very small way.

It's a big stretch even to get most teams to offer a stubby service to get programmatic access to their data and computations. Most of them think they're building products. And a stubby service is a pretty pathetic service. Go back and look at that partial list of learnings from Amazon, and tell me which ones Stubby gives you out of the box. As far as I'm concerned, it's none of them. Stubby's great, but it's like parts when you need a car.

A product is useless without a platform, or more precisely and accurately, a platform-less product will always be replaced by an equivalent platform-ized product.

Google+ is a prime example of our complete failure to understand platforms from the very highest levels of executive leadership (hi Larry, Sergey, Eric, Vic, howdy howdy) down to the very lowest leaf workers (hey yo). We all don't get it. The Golden Rule of platforms is that you Eat Your Own Dogfood. The Google+ platform is a pathetic afterthought. We had no API at all at launch, and last I checked, we had one measly API call. One of the team members marched in and told me about it when they launched, and I asked: "So is it the Stalker API?" She got all glum and said "Yeah." I mean, I was joking, but no... the only API call we offer is to get someone's stream. So I guess the joke was on me.

Microsoft has known about the Dogfood rule for at least twenty years. It's been part of their culture for a whole generation now. You don't eat People Food and give your developers Dog Food. Doing that is simply robbing your long-term platform value for short-term successes. Platforms are all about long-term thinking.

Google+ is a knee-jerk reaction, a study in short-term thinking, predicated on the incorrect notion that Facebook is successful because they built a great product. But that's not why they are successful. Facebook is successful because they built an entire constellation of products by allowing other people to do the work. So Facebook is different for everyone. Some people spend all their time on Mafia Wars. Some spend all their time on Farmville. There are hundreds or maybe thousands of different high-quality time sinks available, so there's something there for everyone.

Our Google+ team took a look at the aftermarket and said: "Gosh, it looks like we need some games. Let's go contract someone to, um, write some games for us." Do you begin to see how incredibly wrong that thinking is now? The problem is that we are trying to predict what people want and deliver it for them.

You can't do that. Not really. Not reliably. There have been precious few people in the world, over the entire history of computing, who have been able to do it reliably. Steve Jobs was one of them. We don't have a Steve Jobs here. I'm sorry, but we don't.

Larry Tesler may have convinced Bezos that he was no Steve Jobs, but Bezos realized that he didn't need to be a Steve Jobs in order to provide everyone with the right products: interfaces and workflows that they liked and felt at ease with. He just needed to enable third-party developers to do it, and it would happen automatically.

I apologize to those (many) of you for whom all this stuff I'm saying is incredibly obvious, because yeah. It's incredibly frigging obvious. Except we're not doing it. We don't get Platforms, and we don't get Accessibility. The two are basically the same thing, because platforms solve accessibility. A platform is accessibility.

So yeah, Microsoft gets it. And you know as well as I do how surprising that is, because they don't "get" much of anything, really. But they understand platforms as a purely accidental outgrowth of having started life in the business of providing platforms. So they have thirty-plus years of learning in this space. And if you go to msdn.com, and spend some time browsing, and you've never seen it before, prepare to be amazed. Because it's staggeringly huge. They have thousands, and thousands, and THOUSANDS of API calls. They have a HUGE platform. Too big in fact, because they can't design for squat, but at least they're doing it.

Amazon gets it. Amazon's AWS (aws.amazon.com) is incredible. Just go look at it. Click around. It's embarrassing. We don't have any of that stuff.

Apple gets it, obviously. They've made some fundamentally non-open choices, particularly around their mobile platform. But they understand accessibility and they understand the power of third-party development and they eat their dogfood. And you know what? They make pretty good dogfood. Their APIs are a hell of a lot cleaner than Microsoft's, and have been since time immemorial.

Facebook gets it. That's what really worries me. That's what got me off my lazy butt to write this thing. I hate blogging. I hate... plussing, or whatever it's called when you do a massive rant in Google+ even though it's a terrible venue for it but you do it anyway because in the end you really do want Google to be successful. And I do! I mean, Facebook wants me there, and it'd be pretty easy to just go. But Google is home, so I'm insisting that we have this little family intervention, uncomfortable as it might be.

After you've marveled at the platform offerings of Microsoft and Amazon, and Facebook I guess (I didn't look because I didn't want to get too depressed), head over to developers.google.com and browse a little. Pretty big difference, eh? It's like what your fifth-grade nephew might mock up if he were doing an assignment to demonstrate what a big powerful platform company might be building if all they had, resource-wise, was one fifth grader.

Please don't get me wrong here -- I know for a fact that the dev-rel team has had to FIGHT to get even this much available externally. They're kicking ass as far as I'm concerned, because they DO get platforms, and they are struggling heroically to try to create one in an environment that is at best platform-apathetic, and at worst often openly hostile to the idea.

I'm just frankly describing what developers.google.com looks like to an outsider. It looks childish. Where's the Maps APIs in there for Christ's sake? Some of the things in there are labs projects. And the APIs for everything I clicked were... they were paltry. They were obviously dog food. Not even good organic stuff. Compared to our internal APIs it's all snouts and horse hooves.

And also don't get me wrong about Google+. They're far from the only offenders. This is a cultural thing. What we have going on internally is basically a war, with the underdog minority Platformers fighting a more or less losing battle against the Mighty Funded Confident Producters.

Any teams that have successfully internalized the notion that they should be externally programmable platforms from the ground up are underdogs -- Maps and Docs come to mind, and I know GMail is making overtures in that direction. But it's hard for them to get funding for it because it's not part of our culture. Maestro's funding is a feeble thing compared to the gargantuan Microsoft Office programming platform: it's a fluffy rabbit versus a T-Rex. The Docs team knows they'll never be competitive with Office until they can match its scripting facilities, but they're not getting any resource love. I mean, I assume they're not, given that Apps Script only works in Spreadsheet right now, and it doesn't even have keyboard shortcuts as part of its API. That team looks pretty unloved to me.

Ironically enough, Wave was a great platform, may they rest in peace. But making something a platform is not going to make you an instant success. A platform needs a killer app. Facebook -- that is, the stock service they offer with walls and friends and such -- is the killer app for the Facebook Platform. And it is a very serious mistake to conclude that the Facebook App could have been anywhere near as successful without the Facebook Platform.

You know how people are always saying Google is arrogant? I'm a Googler, so I get as irritated as you do when people say that. We're not arrogant, by and large. We're, like, 99% Arrogance-Free. I did start this post -- if you'll reach back into distant memory -- by describing Google as "doing everything right". We do mean well, and for the most part when people say we're arrogant it's because we didn't hire them, or they're unhappy with our policies, or something along those lines. They're inferring arrogance because it makes them feel better.

But when we take the stance that we know how to design the perfect product for everyone, and believe you me, I hear that a lot, then we're being fools. You can attribute it to arrogance, or naivete, or whatever -- it doesn't matter in the end, because it's foolishness. There IS no perfect product for everyone.

And so we wind up with a browser that doesn't let you set the default font size. Talk about an affront to Accessibility. I mean, as I get older I'm actually going blind. For real. I've been nearsighted all my life, and once you hit 40 years old you stop being able to see things up close. So font selection becomes this life-or-death thing: it can lock you out of the product completely. But the Chrome team is flat-out arrogant here: they want to build a zero-configuration product, and they're quite brazen about it, and Fuck You if you're blind or deaf or whatever. Hit Ctrl-+ on every single page visit for the rest of your life.

It's not just them. It's everyone. The problem is that we're a Product Company through and through. We built a successful product with broad appeal -- our search, that is -- and that wild success has biased us.

Amazon was a product company too, so it took an out-of-band force to make Bezos understand the need for a platform. That force was their evaporating margins; he was cornered and had to think of a way out. But all he had was a bunch of engineers and all these computers... if only they could be monetized somehow... you can see how he arrived at AWS, in hindsight.

Microsoft started out as a platform, so they've just had lots of practice at it.

Facebook, though: they worry me. I'm no expert, but I'm pretty sure they started off as a Product and they rode that success pretty far. So I'm not sure exactly how they made the transition to a platform. It was a relatively long time ago, since they had to be a platform before (now very old) things like Mafia Wars could come along.

Maybe they just looked at us and asked: "How can we beat Google? What are they missing?"

The problem we face is pretty huge, because it will take a dramatic cultural change in order for us to start catching up. We don't do internal service-oriented platforms, and we just as equally don't do external ones. This means that the "not getting it" is endemic across the company: the PMs don't get it, the engineers don't get it, the product teams don't get it, nobody gets it. Even if individuals do, even if YOU do, it doesn't matter one bit unless we're treating it as an all-hands-on-deck emergency. We can't keep launching products and pretending we'll turn them into magical beautiful extensible platforms later. We've tried that and it's not working.

The Golden Rule of Platforms, "Eat Your Own Dogfood", can be rephrased as "Start with a Platform, and Then Use it for Everything." You can't just bolt it on later. Certainly not easily at any rate -- ask anyone who worked on platformizing MS Office. Or anyone who worked on platformizing Amazon. If you delay it, it'll be ten times as much work as just doing it correctly up front. You can't cheat. You can't have secret back doors for internal apps to get special priority access, not for ANY reason. You need to solve the hard problems up front.

I'm not saying it's too late for us, but the longer we wait, the closer we get to being Too Late.

I honestly don't know how to wrap this up. I've said pretty much everything I came here to say today. This post has been six years in the making. I'm sorry if I wasn't gentle enough, or if I misrepresented some product or team or person, or if we're actually doing LOTS of platform stuff and it just so happens that I and everyone I ever talk to has just never heard about it. I'm sorry.

But we've gotta start doing this right.

15 September, 2011

Mumias Sugar (MSC) Dominance, can it last?


A new product from MSC.
After Mumias Sugar Co. closed its factory for maintenance last month the sugar industry experienced one of the worst market instability in kenyas history.1kgs of sugar was retailing at ksh 450/= in most parts of the country, having risen in a span of one month from ksh 90/=.


Few weeks after the resumption of operation the company has tried to calm the market by enhancing its distribution network and service its starved market,cane shortage has, however, reduced its  production capacity.The prices have dropped slightly.Tthe company has warned retailers not to sell its sugar above ksh 120/=, but that directive has not yet been adhered to.


Recent development in the sugar industry has shown MSC's dominance in the Kenyan market,  actually the company  controls more than 60% of the market.Another interesting thing, it's the only Miller in the country that co-generate power and sells the excess to Kenya Power company, the other millers utilize all their co-generation power.
































YearSugar Processed (tonnes)Sugar Produced (tonnes)
20102,318,080235,792
20092,161,031231,014
20082,408,141265,263
20072,118,563217,200
20062,450,548265,819

The demand for sugar has been rising  world wide in the last couple of months, and although leading producers might increase their production in the near future to meet the demand, sugar will still be a profitable commodity.Check the graph  below

  SUGAR #11 (WORLD) Mar 2012 (E) (NYBOT:SB.H12.E)
Locally the company will be forced to protect its turf after the privatization of several government owned millers, which is currently on going , not forgetting increased competition from existing  private millers and new private millers who are setting up shop.Come 2012 the company will also face stiff competition from other COMESA member states after the expiry of the safeguards.Ethiopia has also indicated that it will be constructing several sugar plants that will make it one of the biggest producers of sugar in the world.


The Kenya Sugar Board in 2008 contended  that for the industry to remain competitive after the expiry of the COMESA safeguards the sugar prices would need to reduce by 39% so as to be in line with the competition.The only millers in Kenya that can comfortably compete in a free market  today include :- 
  • Mumias sugar company
  • West Kenya
  • Kibos & Allied Industries 
The three companies produce sugar at costs similar to other COMESA countries.
These factories are equipped with modern facilities that can process sugarcane efficiently.The table below show the production cost of COMESA and selected EAC member countries

CountryCost USD/Tonne
Kenya 410-500
Sudan250-340
Egypt250-300
Malawi200-230
Uganda140-180
Tanzania180-190


MSC has continually diversified its product portfolio to cushion itself from competition.Currently apart from co-generation income the company will start producing Ethanol and bottled water in a few months time.By diversifying, the company will be able to have several revenue streams that will supplement lost income from increased competition.




























































June 2011June 2010June 2009June 2008June 2007
ANNUAL INCOME SUMMARY



Sales15,795,30015,617,73811,738,22111,953,96110,317.70
Gross Profit  5,446,730  4,884,538  3,310,968  4,265,5243,587,948
Pretax Income   2,646,575 2,179,874  1,193,161 1,589,2041,909,894
Net Income  1,933,225 1,572,383  1,609,972 1,213,8371,393,611
Average shares1,530,0001,530,000  1,530,000

  1,530,000   510,000
EPS1.261.03         1.05        0.79        2.73
DPS0.500.40         0.40        0.40        1.50
ANNUAL BALANCE SHEET SUMMARY
Cash & cash equivalent
Total current assets6,511,6596,495,834  5,099,837  4,574,1003,676,096
Long term debt2,395,8342,192,4762,382,814
Total liabilities8,700,5097,334,2587,436,2465,111,0793,579,209
Shareholders Equity14,476,00710,999,85210,039,4699,041,4978,337,660
ANNUAL CASH FLOW SUMMARY
Net cash from operations2,300,1833,004,3181,563,2241,455,193875,719
Net cash from investing(2,612,279)(322,689)







(3,173,147)










    (1,974,346)


(1,343,431)
Net cash from financing(377,495)(938,195)1,019,508 
 86,157



(804,976)
Net Increase/decrease in cash(689,692) 1,743,43(590,415)(432,996)(1,272,688)

The share has been performing poorly since the government offloaded part of its shareholding in a secondary offer in 2006 and a bonus issue in 2007, before the two events the share was retailing at high of Ksh. 63/= now its hovering around ksh 6.20/= to ksh 6.30 range.


Mumias Sugar Company Ltd daily stock prices





20 July, 2011

Kenya Not ready For GM food...but money talks


The Government decision to allow importation of Genetically modified food (GM)is flawed and sets a dangerous precedent that might hurt Kenya in the long run.

The decision by the cabinet committee might have been advised by the current severe drought and the rising food prices that need immediate intervention before the situation turn catastrophic.But,can GM food really be the solution,given that the government has not exhausted other avenues?

The importation of GM maize is shrouded in controversy,it is quite telling that the minister for health was against the importation, but powerful forces seems to have swayed the minister to give-in to the importation pressure.

Those against the importation site health implications and absence of astringent bio-safety law as well as establishment of a competent and efficient regulatory body that can check any unauthorized importation of GM food or seeds.The government has turned a deaf ear to the concerns raised by the general public as well as other stakeholders who interestingly include the millers.

Its interesting to note that the same government failed to provide adequate seedling during the planting season and later there was a lot of out cry from local farmers when the same government failed to buy maize at prices that at-least covered farmers overheads.

so why would the government overlook public health,economic and political implications to import this food?

Monsanto is a Fortune 500 company and the world largest producer of genetically modified Products (GMOs), its owned by the largest funds and institutional investors in the world it is also closely associated with Bill & Belida Gates foundation as well as the Rockefeller foundation, This means it is well capitalized to fund a marketing campaign across the globe in search of market for their product which include:-

*Agricultural and vegetable seeds
*Plant biotechnology traits
*Crop protection chemicals

Monsanto is known for its aggressive defense for its patents.In the past, the company sued farmers for growing crops that cross-pollinated with Monsanto crops and became contaminated with the company's patented genetic codes.The company usually demands seasonal royalties from farmers who use their seeds.

The government is definitely under pressure from western donors, which include USAID,UK and several Foundations that Fund Activities worth Billion of dollars in Kenya, to allow Importation of GM food without passing stringent bio-safety laws to safeguard the long-term health of the Kenyan people.This is apparent when you look at how the government agreed to the importation without first conducting an impact assessment survey on something that local researchers have not given a clear bill of health.

There are reports that In india farmers are worse off after they started using engineered seeds with claims of some even committing suicide.Dr. Vandana Shiva, director of Navdanya, a research foundation based in New Delhi, India, has long been an opponent of GM foods.Here is what she says in a VOA interview.

GMOs definitely don’t overcome grain shortages. The technology doesn’t allow an increase in yield. So far, all it’s done is introduce two kinds of toxic genes into plants. One, herbicide resistance, which is failing to control weeds in the U.S…and Bt toxin gene, which is also not able to control pests. We have an emergence of resistance in the bollworm in India.

There are safety issues. The U.S. has never ever done serious trials independent of the company’s. Unfortunately, in 1992 the United States introduced the principle of ‘substantial equivalence,’ which said treat a genetically modified food as if it is a normal food. And therefore, it is a ‘don’t see, don’t look and assume safety’ policy.

Organs are getting affected. Immunity is getting affected.

The only way to deal with drought is through organic farming because drought means scarcity of water. That means you must have more moisture available in your soil to be able to produce food. The only way you can increase soil moisture is through increasing organic matter. Our research in India shows that we can have as much as a 25 percent increase in organic matter by recycling plant residues, organic manure and doing composting.

Our work in India shows that we can double food production in India if we adopt ecological methods. The United Nations, based on African studies…put out a report showing that ecological methods are…doubling production in Africa. That data cannot be ignored anymore. Kenya can feed itself. Africa can feed itself. The world can feed itself through organic matter


The warning signs of embracing GMO is now apparent in US where the cost of organic food is relatively high than GMOs substitutes.This, in essence, means organic food has now become a luxury with the entire population solely dependent on genetically engineered food whose long term health effect has never been conclusively done.

29 June, 2011

Release of Oil Reserves Might Hurt Kenya.


The decision by the Obama administration to release its strategic oil reserve to ease price pressure, brought about by the Libyan crisis, might be too costly to the Kenyan economy if OPEC decides to retaliate by tightening supplies.

The release of the 60 million barrel of oil might help in the short term to bring the prices down, but if the oil producing countries view the action as an affront by a consumer government to control their business ,they might reduce production, further creating a shortage that the strategic reserves can not satisfy resulting in an upward price pressure that might cause a recession in Kenya.

The prices of oil in the international market has lately been falling with Saudi Arabia promising to increase its quota to bridge the gap created by disruptions in Libya.OPEC failure to reach an unanimous decision to increase production might have triggered US and a 28 member International Energy Agency (IEA)decision to release the strategic oil reserves into the market.The oil from the reserves will obviously stir the market in the next few months with prices dropping by about $10-$12, this is according to a Goldman Sachs note.But what will happen after the reserves has been depleted?How will the consumer countries like Kenya protect themselves from the rising prices?

Kenya will enjoy the dropping prices for now, but how will it cushion itself once,as some analyst are predicting,a tightened supply start exerting an upward price pressure by year end?
We have seen how rising oil prices has negatively impacted the Kenyan economy especially the rising inflation and the depreciating shilling,in fact oil imports account for 50% of all Kenya's Imports Bill.

Kenya has no strategic reserves and relies solely on oil marketers’ 21-day oil reserves required under industry regulations.National oil corporation of Kenya (NOCK)is in the process of building a strategic national petroleum reserve but due to the capital outlay required it will need to partner with the private sector.The reserve will hold about 1bn litres — equivalent to 90 days consumption — and help ease disruptions in the supply chain.NOCK has sought consultants for a detailed feasibility study on the development and implementation of the reserves.

Lack of strategic oil reserves in the meantime means the country is exposed and vulnerable to shocks brought about by high oil prices.Treasury, therefore, needs to be proactive and come up with strategies to insulate the country against shocks in the medium term.Treasury and the ministry of energy should continue with their efforts to negotiate with oil producing countries for good prices through bilateral concessions.The economy needs a predictable business environment to grow.Price shocks brought about by oil price fluctuation threatens the growth of the economy and the stability of the nation.